The Financial Times interviewed me for an article about partner promotions in the Big Four, and the dramatic decline in numbers since the post covid 2022 peak. Fluctuations in partner promotions in this sector are driven by advisory work. Audit work is always less susceptible to economic fluctuations (lower margins but a reliable income stream), but advisory work is a bellwether of economic activity more generally.

While AI-related advisory work represents a huge opportunity for the Big Four, it also adds to the prevailing sense of uncertainty among clients, which may cause them to delay hiring external advisors for other substantial pieces of work. Meanwhile the Big Four are trying to make sense of the full implications of GenAI for how they organize and deliver their core activities, which exacerbates their sense of opportunity but also uncertainty.

In times of extreme uncertainty partnerships will hold off making significant financial decisions.  One of the most significant financial decisions a partnership makes every year is how many partners to promote.

As I say in the article: It is not simply a question of whether potential partners are capable of generating enough work this year to justify their promotion, but whether they will generate a substantial stream of income for the foreseeable future. Right now the future is particularly hard to foresee.

Listen to my podcast episode "Leading Professionals" on the impact of PE and AI on the accounting sector

Read my Harvard Business Review article, "How to lead when the future seems unpredictable"